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comex's avatar

I read Scott Alexander’s Substack, and he has in fact written a long post criticizing Israel’s conduct in Gaza. While he hasn’t written about ICE, he wrote multiple posts last year criticizing the cutting of USAID, wrote a post defending the notion that people like Trump could be a threat to democracy (“Defining Defending Democracy: Contra The Election Winner Argument”), and, in another post (“Links For April 2025”), criticized Trump “sending innocent people to horrible Salvadorean prisons” and described his apparent refusal to comply with a Supreme Court order as “terrifying”.

luciela's avatar

First, many prominent EA figures have spoken out against ICE and the events in Gaza, as demonstrated by the examples provided in the replies to your original tweet, including Nathan Young. Even taking the claim at face value, I think it's fair for people to have different focus areas and remain quiet on certain issues. I could, for example, easily reverse the argument on you for your relative silence on animal welfare issues, which are present-time non-hypothetical moral catastrophes.

Your claim that longtermists believe "the death of someone who currently exists is morally equivalent to the non-birth of someone who hasn’t yet been born, all other things being equal" is also unsubstantiated. There are reasons for believing that existing people have aspirations, desires, and existing relationships which have moral weight greater than that of someone who hasn't yet been born while simultaneously holding that future people hold considerable moral weight.

The critical mass argument is coherent in theory, but it requires evidence. More precisely, it should be demonstrated that expelling ICE from Minneapolis follows the tipping point dynamics you propose and that current efforts to expel ICE are sufficiently close to this threshold to warrant diverting resources and attention from traditional EA causes. (These conditions may be formulated in probabilistic terms if you wish) If you are able to provide empirical evidence of this form, I think many EAs would be receptive to changing their priorities.

I would also like to see more precise and rigorous argumentation regarding your belief that EA has made the world worse. It's certainly not clear to me that said "good EAs" would still have donated most or all of their disposable incomes if EA had not existed. One could similarly claim that SBF had a scamming nature and would've found some other excuse to defraud people without EA. (I am not arguing that this is the case; my point is that this is a similarly unrigorous way of reasoning about counterfactuals) It's also not clear that said donations from these "good EAs" would've been of equal or greater impact without EA, and you make no attempt to properly analyze the benefits and harms in a nuanced way, instead gesturing at negative events ostensibly attributable to the movement.

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